IMPACT OF PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE ON SUNFLOWER PRODUCTIVITY UNDER RAINFED AND IRRIGATED CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN UKRAINE
Abstract
Purpose. To assess the impact of projected agroclimatic changes on sunflower crop productivity and yield in Southern Ukraine under natural and regulated water supply using mathematical modelling, and to determine the effectiveness of irrigation as an adaptation measure to climate change. Methods. The study employed the MODSON-7 (Water-Thermal Regime and Sunflower Productivity) and MODSOL-6 (Crop Productivity Formation under Irrigation) simulation models. Calculations were performed for the baseline climate period (1986–2015) and the projected period (2026–2050) under the RCP 8.5 climate scenario for the Northern and Southern Steppe subzones of Ukraine. Agroclimatic conditions, crop water regime, leaf area index, dry biomass accumulation, reproductive organ formation and seed yield were evaluated. Irrigation efficiency was additionally assessed under different drought intensities. Results. The simulations revealed pronounced spatial differences in sunflower response to projected climate change. In the Northern Steppe, improved moisture availability during the early growing season is expected to increase leaf area index from 1.35 to 2.19 m²/m², total dry biomass from 426.07 to 624.71 g/m² and seed yield from 1.7 to 2.3 t/ha. In contrast, intensified aridisation in the Southern Steppe will reduce leaf area index to 0.69 m²/m², substantially decrease biomass accumulation and lower seed yield to 0.6 t/ha. The study demonstrated that maintaining optimal soil moisture throughout the growing season stabilises the crop water regime, enhances the realization of sunflower production potential, and increases seed yield by 2.5–3.0-fold compared with rainfed conditions, even under extreme drought. Findings. The response of sunflower to projected climate change is primarily controlled by natural moisture availability. Irrigation is an effective climate adaptation measure that stabilises crop productivity, mitigates water stress and enhances the resilience of agricultural production under increasing climatic aridity.
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